Market Outlook - 4/12 -4/16 - Will We Pullback ?
Hello everyone, and welcome to another weekly outlook post by True Trade ! In last weeks post we went over the super bullish movement in the market and how we were expecting continued moves even higher - (https://www.truetradellc.com/post/market-outlook-4-5-4-9-how-high-can-we-go) , but how much higher can we continue?!?!?!
For this following week, I'll go over some key zones you will want to watch buyers to hold if we continue the float mode. If they break we can get that much needed pullback.
(I won't go much in depth over how to utilize the key levels as we have discussed it in both : https://www.truetradellc.com/post/market-outlook-3-22-3-26 and https://www.truetradellc.com/post/market-outlook-3-15-3-17 , but if you have any questions about what we are about to go over, please don't hesitate to drop them down below. )
- If necessary I could create a separate informational post that discusses key levels more in depth. -
(ALL TIME IS BASED ON PST)
As always we will start with my favorite , /ES
/ES and SPY - DAILY UNTIL 4/9
As mentioned in last week's post, we were looking positive on the upside , but we did not see any pullback from that 4/1 daily close, we just continued to grind higher , consolidated in a bull flag formation and kept on grinding. There hasn't been any resistance so far , and we can keep grinding up in this float mode, but I am starting to get a little more conservative on the long side. the trend is still strong up, and I haven't see any VIX divergence yet , but I will remain cautious for now. Best bet would be taking long trades on pullbacks, but for those who want to short wait for the selling to brew and then take some short side trades to the support zones.
- NEW HIGHS - Same as last week , no sign of sellers yet , and without them , we will continue to float higher.
DOWNSIDE: (4014 and 3961 still important but a few more support's established)
- 4050 - 55ish (Around 405.2 on SPY )- Not as clear a zone on the daily , but buyers seemed to be buying off this location on 4/6 and 4/7. Also the support before our breakout on 4/8-4/9 for new highs
- 4014 ( 400.67 close on SPY) - The same key level from last week , still unvisited from the 4/1 breakout close. Still can act as support from the breakdown
- 3961 - 3967 ( Around 397.26) - This was the initial push down area two weeks ago for the drop from 397 to 383, it took us some time to reclar the level with a week of sideways consolidation but once we got it by gapping over on 4/1, we got the push into 400. It's not out of question to revisit this breakup location, or unfilled gap on SPY.
/ES continued to look strong this past week, and then /NQ found its way back towards the highs as well, getting the push it needed to catch up with the DOW and S&P on the upside.
/NQ and QQQ - Daily until 4/9
QQQ was lagging the market , butt picked up steam this last week to catch up and got back towards the highs. Again , similar to SPY , with a strong uptrend, but this one still has to break its former ATH's.
- NEW HIGHS - Still a good uptrend , with no
- 13820.75 - The ATH close on /NQ daily , we got to it on 4/9, but didn't close over... yet we did close the daily over the QQQ ATH close, so let's see how we open on 4/12. DOWNSIDE: (Still valid downside levels from last week's post, with a few new support's established)
-13552 (330.24) - A key resistance level in last week's post, was broken on 4/5 and then became the support for a continued grind higher. Multi day bae off the level where buyers positioned themselves, and will be the level to hold if short term upside it to continue !
- 13314 ( 324.13 QQQ) - We got the break back over this level to end the week on 4/1, and never looked back , gapping up to open this week with a continued grind back to the highs. A unfilled gap here ramins, and it's the key location for the breakout. Would definitely look to be a buyer here on any dips .
- 13187 ( Around 320.5) - This area was the last pivot on the down move to 308 , which held. We gapped over this level to open on 4/1, wouldn't be surprised to see a revisit it .
(334 can also be a support level for QQQ as well )
Next we have the DOW :
/YM and DIA - Daily until 4/9
Just like SPY , we continued higher with DIA. There's not much in term of upside price targets , as we are still sitting at. all time highs, but in terms of support, we have 334 as the most immediate level, basing at it all week until the 4/9 breakup. Then below that we have 331 level which is a unfilled gap and prior resistance, not to sure if this will be support yet but the level under beneath at 328 or 32687 will be the key support for the short term upside picture.
Lastly we have VIX :
We made a new 52 week low once again , but we did not close the week on the lows, we held a bit higher above. Until buyers stop stepping in again over 17.3 and pushing back over 19 , there's not much scare for downside. But once we start getting back over and holding 17.3 , i'll look a little more in adding on shorts for a pullback.
Overall , the market is still in a bullish position , and taking dip buys and key support levels for at least intraday trades should work just well. But with the last 2 weeks offering 11 straight geen days on spy and qqq , I will be looking for some market signals to start taking some short side positions.
That's it for this week's market outlook ! I will have a watchlist posted later today. If you have any questions , drop them below ! As always do your own due diligence and research .
(Remember, even if you don't trade futures or ETFs such as SPY , QQQ , you can still utilize the futures, and these indices to help you decipher market sentiment, and allow you to see the trend of the market, while giving you signs of relative weakness/strength to see which side would be best to trade for that day whether it be long or short. The same strategies used above can be used on any stock, and the principles of price action apply to them all. Use it as a blueprint , and you will slowly but surely become a better trader.)
If you want to trade these levels LIVE with us , with our entries and exits , come join our discord chat and be able to mimic and trade with us every single day ! You will not regret it ;)
Hope you all have a wonderful rest of your weekend, and a great upcoming week :)
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