Market Outlook 4/5 - 4/9, How High Can We Go ???

Hello everyone , and welcome to another weekly outlook by True Trade ! I wasn't able to get a weekly outlook post up for last week , so there isn't much to recap, but those weekly watchlist picks https://www.truetradellc.com/post/market-watchlist-3-29-4-1 did some magic 👀👀👀. (If you want a recap of the watchlists , post a comment down below)


Now to get into the key numbers and zones to watch for this upcoming week, as we had new highs being made on S&P500 and DOW, but how high can we go???


(I won't go much in depth over how to utilize the key levels as we have discussed it in both : https://www.truetradellc.com/post/market-outlook-3-22-3-26 and https://www.truetradellc.com/post/market-outlook-3-15-3-17 , but if you have any questions about what we are about to go over, please don't hesitate to drop them down below. ) - If necessary I could create a separate informational post that discusses key levels more in depth. -


(ALL TIME IS BASED ON PST)


As usual, I'll start with my favorite, the futures for the S&P 500 , or /ES and $SPY.

/ES AND SPY - DAILY UNTIL 4/1


(I don't know why /ES is showing a daily candle for 4/5 even though its 4/3 on the day I'm writing this... probably just a glitch) Over the last week we had a lot of consolidation to start, until getting the breakup to end the week to start April on 4/1. With that consolidation base in mind , it is likely we keep grinding up next week, or engage float mode until .... there's actually no telling yet how high we float.


UPSIDE : - NEW HIGHS- Not much to say, we closed the week at a new all time high, so because of that, there is no target in my mind on how high we could go.

DOWNSIDE:

- 4014 ( 400.67 close on SPY) - We closed 4/1 at new highs, spy closed over 400, while /ES continued to grind higher after the market closed, ending the day off 4014. After the close , it continued to hold 4014 for the few hours the futures market opened on 4/1 from 3:00 PM to 4/2 6:00 AM. If we continue to hold this level on 4/4 and 4/5 market open that can be the tradeable level. - 3961 - 3967 ( Around 397.26) - This was the initial push down area a week ago for the drop from 397 to 383, it took us some time to reclar the level with a week of sideways consolidation but once we got it by gapping over on 4/1, we got the push into 400. It's not out of question to revisit this breakup location, or unfilled gap on SPY.

- 3933-3937 (Around 392.59) - This 3935 area was key in both the last two pullbacks. The first time this was the high made for the pullback, and this last time a week ago, this was the over/under level for downside or upside, as we failed to close the day back over and pushed back towards 3830. Once we got back over on 3/26, we began to hold the level and made our move to break into new highs. For the time being this is the key over under location, if we continue to hold this level for any dips down, we will see upside continuation. If we break, we will be ready to give some more important zones to follow.


/ES looks strong coming into those new highs, on the other hand we have /NQ which is fighting its way back over resistance, lets see how the story differs over here.


/NQ , QQQ - Daily until 4/1


Apart from SPY we have the tech sector, which isn't at its ATH's , but it did break its most recent breakdown area to end the week, that 13314 or 324.13 level, and this can make things very intresting next week with earnings coming up. Tech was trailing the market while the DOW and S&P made new highs, but there is a possibility for them to catch up in the next few weeks if these key areas are held. This sector will have my eyes for the month to follow.


UPSIDE:

- 135525 (330.24) - This was the breakdown area on our initial drop towards those mid Feb lows. We have yet to run a test of them , and are likely to do it soon. It would be normal to see some selling around this area if we revisit it, especially on a quick move back up, and you can look to take at least some intraday shorts here. (Look for weakness to take the short, especially if the market is on an up move, don't blindy short this area, wait for some confirmation) The 330.24 is the big area, but it is possible we see some selling before hand around 326.5 ... I wouldn't take some much of this, other than a upside profit target, kind of have to wait and see how we react. So yes utilize 326.5 and 330 , but have more attention focused on that 330.


-13710.15 (Around 335.54) - This was also an are of interest, I don't see has getting this high in the following week , but if we somehow do, I would look to take shorts here for sure. This was a important ATH close on 2/11 before we made a new high the next day on 2/12 , and failed by breaking and holding back under showing the first sign of sellers stepping in on the bull run.


DOWNSIDE: - 13314 ( 324.13 QQQ) - We got the break back over this level to end the week on 4/1, but will this level hold? Holding this level is the best and most bullish case for continued upside early in the week, and it seems to be the most likely for now. It might take some time to build some consolidation along the zone , but even if we pull back a bit, it won't be terrible.

- 13187 ( Around 320.5) - This area was the last pivot on the down move to 308 , which held. We gapped over this level to open on 4/1, wouldn't be surprised to see a revisit it .

- 13073 (Around 318.83) - This level will be my line in the sand for short tem upside or downside, i don't expect to revisit here this upcoming week , but just in case anything crazy happens, if we get back under this zone, we will likely see that 12788 or 308 again , if not lower. But until we break back under this level, I will look to buy the dips.


Next we have the DOW :


/YM and $DIA - Daily until 4/1


Not much to say about this sector, other than the continued strength and making new highs, on the futures at least. In the last outlook post we highlighted the importance of that 31935, or 320 area and a week ago we did exactly what was expected by re running a test of that breakup area. 😉

https://www.truetradellc.com/post/market-outlook-3-22-3-26


High amount of buyers stepped up there and that exploded s back to the highs. Now for the week to follow if we can hold that 328.86 area, it would be great for continued upside, and that's where you would look to continue to be buyers over. If we hold higher off 330.77 even better, if we break look for mid 326 (32687) area for the next big support.


Lastly we have the volatility or VIX index :

$VIX - DAILY UNTIL 4/1


To close the week 4/1 , Vix closed at a 52 week low, as some investor fear has started to lay off with the market bounce back from that pullback. With that pullback 2 weeks ago , we saw some spikes of vix back towards 24 off that 19 hold, but we got that break and are heading back towards 17 (the gap from 2/21/20) right before the market started its crash last year. Just keep your eyes on VIX to see if buyers can get us back above 19 before we see an increase in volatility again. With that in mind, float mode , or upside moves should continue for now.


Final Words: I would expect some continued upside into earnings season , and with where the sectors are I'll have most of my attention focused on those tech stocks that have taken some decent hits, and start seeing if those buyers step in again. (I'll have some with key levels posted tomorrow 😉). Not much else to say as the market's are just in grind mode now , we might not see as many rapid swings for the time being , but just be patient and find the trades that work for you !!!



That's it for this week's market outlook ! I will have a watchlist posted sometime tomorrow (4/4). If you have any questions , drop them below ! As always do your own due diligence and research . (Remember, even if you don't trade futures or ETFs such as SPY , QQQ , you can still utilize the futures, and these indices to help you decipher market sentiment, and allow you to see the trend of the market, while giving you signs of relative weakness/strength to see which side would be best to trade for that day whether it be long or short. The same strategies used above can be used on any stock, and the principles of price action apply to them all. Use it as a blueprint , and you will slowly but surely become a better trader.)

I will have an update market post in tomorrow's watchlist !

 

If you want to trade these levels LIVE with us , with our entries and exits , come join our discord chat and be able to mimic and trade with us every single day ! You will not regret it ;)

Hope you all have a wonderful rest of your weekend, and a great upcoming week :)

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What do you have your eyes on ???





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