Market Recap 1/21 - 1/22 - ER Plays
Hello everyone , and welcome to the weekend recap reviewing the last few days in the market! Today we will highlight some sweet bounce/breakout plays we caught and then discuss some fun Earnings plays coming up this week.
INDICES
In terms of the market we had a very nice continuation to the upside with new highs on Thursday , followed by a retrace bounce play on Friday. As discussed in the last blog, /ES broke out of the key zone over 3800 and then 3815-3822 and we continued to the upside. "We dropped on Friday, what do you make of it ?" , was a common question I received, and my response to it was, that was just had a retest of the breakout zone. Friday we opened on a gap down on $SPY, and /ES hit an overnight low around 3813 , just a few ticks under that breakout from 3815 (or 381.26 on SPY).
The chart below has a squared zone around the breakout + a circled zone for the daily bounce off 3185.
/ES DAILY - Until 1/22
Tech was similar to $SPY in the sense that it pulled back , but it was not as steep. On Friday /NQ stayed within the same range as Thursday, and from the looks of it , looked much stronger than the general market. With some big companies like $AAPL and $MSFT announcing earnings reports this upcoming week , we saw tech hold up well, and looks like it wants to continue back to the upside next week. A key pullback area for tech would be around 13123 and 13000 if we fall early next week, but if we look strong and just hold 13288 we can continue back towards the highs on Monday. The $QQQ equivalents would be 323.77 for strong upside support, and then 316.5-317.3 for the retest of the breakout zone.
QQQ DAILY - Up until 1/22
Other than that, continued upside in the market is the most likely scenario unless we get back under 3815 and 3800 on /ES , don't look to be short ! Gets back and holds under those levels , we will have some sweet down plays.
Divergences wise $XLF or the financials had a pullback under the most recent 30.5 support, maybe we retest 29, as the pullback came after bank selloffs post earnings. On the other hand SMH was similar to spy , while IWM closed close to it's all time highs. Divergences are forming , but play the trend for now , as VIX has started to base lower around 21 ( down into the 20 area is good buy for hedging long term positions).
That's my take on the indices, not much , other than expecting continued upside, now we can move on to some of the plays of the week and some fun company earnings to look out for.
DAILY PLAYS
Since we have a two day breakdown, we will go over the plays from Thursday first. Some key stocks our watchlist was comprised of was MRNA, AAPL, TTD and GOOG :
$GOOG - If you recall, google was a breakout play on Wednesday 1/19, and before open on Thursday it was looking to continue with some sideways consolidating price action. Ideally we wanted to open above 1/19's close , and if we did we would continue to grind higher, which is exactly what took place. Off the open we jumped to a high just over 1934 giving us a $37-38+ play off the open and a bounce from 1886-1908 midday for a sweet $20 move . That close on 1/19 was 1886, and that same level was held on Friday (1/22) as well giving us another bounce from 1886 to 1908.
GOOG- 15 MIN Chart 1/19-1/22
When playing these all time high breakouts you can always you the highest daily close as a key level, and then look for price action to confirm its importance. In this case, since GOOG held 1886 premarket 1/21 and all day 1/21 , we could look to continue buying 1886 until at least a 30 min close back under it for a minimum intraday bounce play. You can set targets in a similar way using 30 min breakdowns or new highs if we clear the most recent breakdown. In the case of GOOG , we bounced midday on 1/21 back to 1908 before rejecting (highlighted zone) and on Friday we can have that as our first target , and since we failed to get back over that it was more likely we would just drop back (if we were weak) or contolidate (if we were stronger). OOG went sideways , and getting back over that zone Monday , can send us back to the top, while getting back under 1886 can pull us towards 1827 , with 1847 and 1865 as some other keys.
TTD - This was a swing play off 1/19's close and it came right into our first major target. We closed back over the key 806 level and held it midday, giving me enough conviction to take it long.
As seen in the pic above , getting over 806, the next big zone was 840 . On 1/20 we opened off higher at 833 , and since it was a swing , we were happy to take some profits. We got a quick sell at open (shown below)
TTD - 15 MIN 1/21
The blue line in this pic highlights 823 , and as mentioned that was aa key support along with 816, so we opened above 823 , and we dipped into 818 a few minutes in (just a few dollars above the 816 zone). That dip at open gave us a chance for rentery , and when we saw the 5min candles hold and break back up, we jumped in targeting 840 , and potentially 870 on the break, In this case we hit 840, took some profit, rejected and fell back down where we were stopped.
TTD - 5MIN 1/21
The circled zone on the blue line indicated that higher hold we wanted , and we went long from 823 back to 840. This is a great example of where we have our thesis "long TTD" off holds at 816/ 823, and once price action confirms what we want to see happening , we take or trade , and place our stop as needed. We always wait for confirmation , and we never hope for a trade to work.
MRNA- Moderna was a very nice setup, with some nice consolidation pre breakout. This was an exaggerated drop , a ridiculous 41%+ drop from the highs on 12/1/20 to 12/31. After makin that pivot low, buyers started to step in again.
MRNA - DAILY 12/1/20- 1/22/21
As seen in the post above after that $70+ drop , we bounced off 105 back into 120, rejected back to 110 , and we held, without making a new low, giving us our first sign of a reversal. Once we held that 110 and broke back over 120 , the most recent breakdown , we got our confirmation of a reversal, and that 120 became.a key support while 130 became the next crucial breakdown area.
On 1/21 we broke that 130 level intraday, and we were positioned to go long !!!
MRNA- 5 MIN 1/21
Once we broke 130.34 around 10:05 EST , MRNA had caught our eyes and we took our starter position. Again, we always want to wait for confirmation, the break was step 1 , and now for step 2 we wanted to hold that level. In this case , we held 130, going sideways for about 30-35 minutes before taking off. After that we sold a partial into 133, a low level number from the high on 1/15, and then sold a good chunk into the first big target at 137, woop woop ! Going into next week , if 130 can hold on a daily basis (as long as daily candles close over) we can still try to make a push for 144 , or you can look to enter on aa break back over 137 ;).
AAPL- Apple was another swing + day trade on Thursday, but for the purpose of this post we will just review the day trade aspect. On 1/4 apple has a breakdown candle sending us back under the most recent support, the open of that candle was 133.52, a key level. On 1/21 apple was setting up to open above that key level , giving us a chance to go long right at open (highlighted circle 1/21 open) !
AAPL - DAILY , UNTIL 1/22
We consolidated over that 133.5 all pre market and opening over gave us the trigger we needed to hold our swings , and add some size, as you see below, we opened over the key level, and never pushed under. Off that open, we looked for 136.69 which was hit , and once we got over that and closed over that(back above the highest daily close), Apple looked good to continue, which it did on Friday 👀
AAPL - 5MIN 1/21-1/22
Again when looking for key levels, one spot you always want to look for is breakdown areas (where we break the most recent support) and use that open price as a key zone, and then always mark your highest daly closes as key levels. Apple had the advantage of giving us a 2 in one, where we entered when we opened back over a breakdown candle. Then after it closed over the highest ATH (all time high) cloe , we got a chance to watch for another long over 136.7!
That's the recap now for Thursday's plays, and this post has gotten quite long. So instead of posting Friday's recap here, i'll throw them up in another quick post tomorrow , doing a similar breakdown as done today, going into some details and things to look for when wanting confirmation.
Hopefully these breakdowns help you guys out , and if they do please drop a like for the post !
Be tuned for tomorrow's breakdown on $PLTR, $QS and a few more :)
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