Market Recap 1/27 - 1/28 -Another Attempt By The Bears
Good evening everyone, and I hope you all have had a prosperous trading week. There has been loads going on , and i'm here to help and try make sense of what i can , and offer my insight on the past few trading days. (Sorry for not posting yesterday 😱). As always lets start with the major indices.
We had a few red day on 1/27 followed by a bounce on 1/28. If you recall from the last post, the key over/under area we discussed was holding 3822 on a daily and holding 3815 on an hourly and then the 3796 breakup zone (squared zone). If we check out the daly chart , on the 27th we not only closed under those levels, but also closed under the most recent low from 2 weeks ago on the 14th, and it started to look pretty negative.
/ES - DAILY CHART
"How could i have taken advantage of this down move" , you may ask, well there's a simple answer to that , be in our trading group (haha). But here I'll discuss what triggers you could've looked for, starting on the hourly chart.
/ES - HOURLY - Until 1/28 9 PM EST
To start off, going back over the important 3815 hourly level from the last blog , we notice how the first attempt the hourly candles closed OVER the level (green circle), and then if we look at the more closer move, we had our first hourly candle close UNDER 3815 around 6 AM EST (just before market open). Having this information before market open could've helped you look for your plays in the day. Since /ES got back under a key level, you could've started looking for some potential short size plays, or in this case looked to play $SPY on the downside. The grey squared area was the daily breakup candle from 3976 , and as you see there was a lot of sideways movement along that zone for a while, before the trap doors opened and we continued straight down. This was a great opportunity to short with the stop at an hourly close over 3185.5 ( around 381 on $SPY) and targeting 3748.5 (around 374 on $SPY). In this scenario, we quickly plushed the first level and went straight into 3700 support. Now when we got down there , buyers started their hold the line process and began to buy, at first struggling to get back over 3748, and then breaking back over on the 2nd attempt.
/ES - HOURLY - Until 1/28 - 9 PM EST
As seen above, after coming to the big 3703 buy we had aninitiall bounce which took us back towards 3748 which was rejected (red circle), and then we came back down , bounced and then broke 3748 (green circle). After we broke, we just went and ran a retest of the breakdown area from 3822, which gave us another chance to short, and you bet we took it 😆. (AGAIN 1ST REVISTS OF BREAKDOWNS/BREAKUPS OFFER GREAT TRADES 9/10 TIMES). As I'm typing this up, /ES is back at that 3750 zone and whether we hold here or not can decide what tomorrow looks like, getting back under is good for continued downside and we may even break 3700 this time around. But if we hold, we can find ourselves back into 3815 ( won't be immediate ). If we open tomorrow under (which is possible), next big zones to watch would be 3703 again and then 3660 and 3625 which equate to roughly around 370.88 , 367.86 and 363.97 on $SPY.
Hope this breakdown offers a new technique for your trading :) . Apart from /ES we discussed the relative weakness in the DOW (/YM) in the last post under 30925 and we saw a 700+ point drop (im telling you when we post some number's keep your eyes on them 👀).Tech headed down as well and is back under 13123 on the hourly and looks to be heading back towards 12900 . The warning of dovergences was given last post, and as a result $VIX did take off , bids held and that divergent sign began to fall into action !
As always when looking at the market as a whole you want to look at all aspects and then make a decision on market sentiment, etc. A few weeks ago i had a post in terms of "Market Crash- under 3800" - once we got back over sentiment changed and we played the upside, while being aware that their can be a big sell at any given time. In this case boom , we break back under that 3815 on the hourly, and we start the sell process again. This time the fall can be more drastic, but we always wait for price action confirm our moves. As I like to say PRICE IS KING !!!!
We had a few nice trades in the group these past two days, my favorite was $FUBO and then a continuation on the $PLTR and $ABNB swings !!!
Tuesday's Play (1/27) -
The first two just covered our continued swings, as both hit new all time highs $ABNB hit 216 from 175 , $41 boom !!! While $PLTR hit 45 from our swing at 25 and midday entry 33 giving a +$20 and +$12 winner 😎.
$FUBO - This was where my focus on was at open , as it was gapping over a key level and it had a huge short float,giving it the possibility to really explode.
$FUBO - DAILY UNTIL 1/28
The green line highlights a key breakdown area, that was rejected on 1/25 and 1/26, and the was gapped over on 1/27 which gave us a good buy opportunity. The top red lines indicate high sell pressure and the white and blue mid lines give some intermediate targets.
$FUBO - 5MIN - 1/27
Alright at open we opened over the 44 buy, triggering the "long 44 option" after the quick spike we dropped right into the buy zone, and this is where long position was alerted!
Now after the initial entry, we noticed that the white and blue levels saw some sellers off open, so we took some profit into the first level at 49.5. At the same time when we got over the level, the vwap (purple line) began holding and we were looking much stronger. After the initial exit we moved stop up to 29.5 to avoid going red, then sold some into 52.5 and then sold a good chunk towards 56-57. After we hit the top, we sold off , and look where we revisited (the 2nd green circle) back at 49.5. This gave us a quick scalp buy and just a few minutes later we popped back into 55 and held 52.5 once again. After the bounce we were unable to make a new high (the grey zone), we stopped out remang back under 52.5 (or 49.5 if you kept a wide stop). Under 49.5 gave a short opportunity into the end of day, but other than that, this was a good example of opening over a key level, waiting for a morning dip, and riding the momentum throughout the whole day.
$MSFT - Was another one that gave a great buy off the open dip (I was not able to take as i was invested in $FUBO, but the alert was sent out by partner moe !)
MSFT - 5MIN CHART 1/27
BOOM BOOM , hit 231 and made new highs into 240 , +$9.
Thursday 's Plays (1/28)
For the most part the big thursday play was gone over above taking the spy short off 3822. Other than that we had a few :
$FUB0 - Opened opened back under that key 49.5 from yesterday , could've been a short at open, missed the entry, so watched for a break under 44 to play puts instead. The pre market action on FUBO was looking good to the upside but rejecting 49.5 off open showed some sign of weakness so we move on.
$PLTR: We opened over 39, took a long play , sold some into 42 and then stopped out rest just above breakeven. This was a nice quick scalp play, and we played it beautifully.(Grey circle was our buy and then squared zone partial sell)
$PLTR - 5 MIN - 1/28
$SNOW- Snow opened under, and popped right into our 282 short level , and fell down from it into a low of just under 269 giving a clean ($19 short play). I do admit i was looking for more of a move towards 265, but when the market gives you profit, you gotta take some.... in this case i didn't but ended up selling after the bounce back to breakeven (yes i make mistakes and get greedy at times, lol)
$SNOW - 5MIN - 1/28
Here's the recap for the last few days, hope you guys enjoyed the read, if you have any questions or want more detail, please drop your comments down below !!!
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Hope you all have a wonderful rest of your weekend, and a great upcoming week :)
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