Good evening everyone ! In today's post we will review the market action for the past few days and analyze some of the top plays from this week and watchlist winners.
We discussed how the market was looking for a continued move up in the last post, and it pretty much did what was expected.
(BLOG POST - MARKET RECAP 2/2)
We got the sideways base on 2/3 and part of 2/4 , before exploding to new highs. Continue to play with the trend , as that will always lead to the best results 😎. Now we can go over some key zones on /ES and /NQ and what to look out for in the upcoming week. Starting with /ES:
/ES - HOURLY - UNTIL 2/5
As seen above , after the break over 3815-3822 range we just held and consolidated for about a day and a half. Initially we rejected the 3846 (red circle) which gave a close to 40 point short trade back to 3800 (we did not want to go short unless we got back and held under 3815) . So in this case we just waited for the continued consolidation and allowed price to get the momentum to break up. If you see, even after the selloff from the red zone , the hourly candles, and more importantly the daily candles reamined over the 3815 support. "Could i have played $SPY off the /ES support? " Yes you could've played SPY off the support, but since we were just in a bullish consolidation , we decided to find some relatively stronger market stocks (as will be discussed below) and played those instead. If you were doing options you could've gone a few weeks out to avoid theta burn, while if you played shares you could've used 379.1 as the trailing stop (the breakup from 2/3).
Some key areas to watch this upcoming week would be a retest of the 3820 zone again , or a retrace into the breakout from 3850. Some similar $SPY levels would be 385.41 , 384.39, and 380.22
$SPY - HOURLY UNTIL 2/5
Next we have tech, which, in a similar fashion to the S&P exploded off the lows.
/NQ - HOURLY UNTIL 2/5
On 2/3 we came into some resistance (grey circle) , and sellers gave their one last shot for a sell, we got a decent pullback just like we did on /ES. After the rejection we ran a test of the break over the prior sell off from just under 13400 (squared zone), and after we continued to climb up on 2/4 , closing over the former highest daily close, and 2/5 was pretty much the same. we consolidated a bit and are looking to keep pushing into next week. On an interesting note, $VIX finally broke lower , getting back under 21 for the first time since December. If we can continue to slowly decline , the "fear" sentiment in market is decreasing , but ill still be looking to pick shares up around 20-21 for long term hedge. $XLF got back over that 30.5 level we discussed and now is looking for 31.28 break. $IWM following tech and S&P , while $SMH will continue up back over 237.7.
Now to get into some of the fun daily plays from this last week. In the last post , I gave trade ideas for $SHOP and $TTD, we will review those plus the Friday lotto favorite on $AMZN. Plus we had those nice load up boom booms on $SQ and $CRM
(BLOG POST - MARKET RECAP 2/2)
We will start with the two that we loaded up on , $SQ and $CRM, and then dive into the play breakdowns for the remainder.
$SQ - Last we checked on 2/2 Square was continuing its sideways consolidation , before getting a $7 gap up on 2/4 and grinding higher to end the week at 240+ , a trade we took at 222, making us a positive $18 move. It doesn't look like SQ is done quite yet. If we can continue to hold 231.07 and higher at 233.9 we will continue to push up.
$SQ - HOURLY UNTIL 2/5
As seen above we just continued to break and base higher on each move , and withe the market looking strong , we should continue higher on SQ into new highs in this upcoming week.
$CRM - This was also another slow grind up mover, breaking a basing higher and higher the last 4 days. Some key areas to watch on this one for support are 231 and 236. On the upside a move to 246.82 is very possible , but at least 241.3 if we fail early.
$CRM -HOURLY UNTIL 2/5
Now to get to the plays taken in the latter half of the week : 👀
$TTD - As mentioned above the key area on TTD was 840, we opened over it on 2/3 and ran up a nice $30 bucks.
$TTD - HOURLY 2/3-2/5
As seen above, the grey circles highlight buy in opportunities while the squares indicated where sellers were. "But TTD closed under 840 on 2/3" , yes that's true, we closed under the level, so that would make a swing trade invalid, but then they very next day we opened back over 840, and you can continue to look to buy and go long over 840. The same case on Friday. Initially we rejected the resistance , dipped back towards 840 , and you could continue to buy keeping 840 as the stop. With that said , as long as $TTD holds 840 next week , we will get a nice rocket ride up back towards 920 (will discuss this one more in watchlist for upcoming week).
$SHOP - The key level given for shop was over 1230. On 2/2 we got the initial close over 1230 and then experienced some selling on 12/4 with a market pullback. After the pullback we opened over 12/30 again on 2/4 and we took a 🚀 ride towards the highs.
$SHOP - HOURLY FROM 2/2-2/5
As you see above , we initial got the daily close on 2/2 (green circle), but then sold off the next day (which can be attributed to market pullback in tech), even with the selloff midday we made a higher high, and we remained within the previous day's range. Sometimes after a big up move , like shop had on 2/2 from 1160-1230 ($70), the stock takes a day to cool off, or have what's called an inside day. In the case of $SHOP , 2/3 was the inside day , where the stock remained within the range from 2/2. After that , the next day we opened back over 1230 (orange circle) and continued the upside momentum into new highs on 2/5. This is another one that can continue higher into this upcoming week 👀
$AMZN - Amazon was a nice little lotto play on Friday , which had all the qualities. It's a big mover, same day expirations (low risk high reward potential) and we had a very nice base consolidation going on.
$AMZN - HOURLY UNTIL 2/5
With lottos, the premise we usually take is we sell half at 100% , looking for possibility of a 300-500% play , or the play doesn't work and goes to zero. Hence the term LOTTO, we either take a big win , or we take risk with what we are ok lossing. The important part here , is being comfortable with the size , so in amazon's case, the lotto option was $160. So if your max risk is $160 great you can take the trade , if your not comfortable lossing $160, you don't want to take it. (Keeping in mind that it can go 100%+ , and that its a good trade , but we just don't have the time factor because its a same day options expiration.) Now to get into the technicals. Amazon posted a superb earnings report on 2/2 , but still sold off on 2/3 (the market and tech pulled back so could result in some of this drawdown). With the selloff, we came into support on 2/4 and we eyed that 3293 level to be a buy. "If i didn't want to take a LOTTO could i have bought shares or gone further expiration?" Yes most definitely , buying amazon with stop under that level. Now we held up on 2/4 and the low made on 2/5 (the boxed zone) held the same range , this is where we took the lotto's looking for a move back towards 3360.
Amazon ended up getting that break over the former days range (blue line around 3330) and then boom we went right into the 3360 target , taking profits along the way and selling the last set for just under $2000 ! Now that's how you play a lotto .
Again the premise of even our lotto trades is still similar to our normal trading style. The setup is great, we just take a closer expiration looking for a quicker boom boom .
Now for the upcoming week if $AMZN can hold that 3330 and push back over 3360 , we can see 3430 and potential 3500 by the end of the week so keep your eyes out for that 👀.
If you appreciate the post , don't forget to like and follow, as i will have a weekly watchlist post up later tonight !!!
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Hope you all have a wonderful rest of your weekend, and a great upcoming week :)
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