Market Watchlist 12/13 - 12/17
Hello everyone and welcome to another weekly watchlist by True Trade !!!
Early last week gave us the bounce that we expected, and after some sideways consolidation , we find ourselves close close to all time highs once again (on SPY). Will new highs be breached in the upcoming week 👀, it definitely looks like we will and the "santa claus rally" should continue with it.
So let's get right into it.
(ALL TIME IS BASED ON MST)
(for all trades below I mention level hold, stop loss, etc, I'm using daily or hourly closes for stop losses or holds, you can trade the levels on an intraday basis !).
1. MICROSOFT ($MSFT)
$MSFT - DAILY UNTIL 12/10
MSFT had a solid bounce coming off the pivot lows on 12/3 . After the bounce and gap up early in the week , we had a few days consolidation followed by an upside breakout to end the week at the highs. After closing the week so strong, can MSFT continue to see buying into all time highs in the week to come 👀. It definitely should if buyers can maintain any dips back towards 338.
KEY LEVELS:
349.67 - The all time high , would definitely be a target area to keep in mind , pretty close to the round number of 350.
344.62 - The open of the breakdown candle we had on 11/22. Wouldn't necessarily be looking to short hre , but definitely an area where I would look to take profit.
342.64 - Was a former support pre breakdown mid November. We also double topped right here to end last week on 12/10. A lot of volume has been done here in the last few trading weeks , as we had this zone be our POC for both 11/19 and 11/22. If buyers can hold over early next week we should get going to new highs.
338.18 - Former resistance as you can see with all those wicks rejecting towards mid-late November. After we caught the breakout on 12/10 , this is where buyers continued to hold on pullbacks. Would ideally like to remain over 338 to continue trading the long side , back under would open the gates for a reversal back towards 336 , 330.
2. ADOBE ($ADBE)
$ADBE - DAILY UNTIL 12/10
ADBE is one of those lower volume movers , but is on the list as it does have earnings coming out this week. Similar to most of the market we saw a nice bounce off those lows two weeks ago , and we have just seemed to consolidate between 656 and 632 for the majority of last week post bounce/gap up. Earning should provide enough momentum to break either which way on these so let us see how it pans out.
KEY LEVELS:
662 / 668 - Both these zones acted as either intraday support or resistance during late November (easy to see on a 5 minute chart) , as a result , would like to be aware of price action off these zones , ideally if we can hold the top end , 668 , the gates are open into 680. If we hold under 662 , it would be a bit concerning , but over 656 and under 662 would just result in another consolidation period. If we reject 662 and get back under 656 , that would be a fake break to the upside , and we would need look for a trade back to the downside.
655.95- Most current resistance , have visited it basically every day last week , with 12/9 giving us a solid rejection to the downside. We closed last week right into this level , if buyers can step in over , a squeeze to the upside would be very likely , while if they don't short back to the bottom of the range provides a pretty good trade as well.
643 - Mid level between the 656 and 632 range , not really as important but can be used as potential intraday pivot/target.
632 - Current bottom of the range , buyers came in off 12/9 after the downside flush , would look for this to be the support of the range until broken. If we get back under this , downside can get ugly with that open gap at 622 and then that 605-610 support zone.
610.65 - breaku candle from October , we did revisit this a few days ago , and buyers stepped in slightly lower around 605. If earnings don't go well and we see a gap down into this zone , unless we hold , trend will flip to short side as we will no longer have a "higher low" on the daily. Under say 605 we would want to watch a few of the zones highlighted in the above chart.
3. FEDEX ($FDX)
$FDX - DAILY UNTIL 12/10
FDX also has earnings coming up towards the end of the week , and that is something that should provide some added volatility for us to trade off. After that bottom during the last earnings in September , it looks like FDX has started to shift trend back towards the upside , by basically putting in a higher low on that retrace a few weeks ago. Will earning help propel momentum to the upside , or will we fizzle out like last time 👀.
KEY LEVELS:
254.5 - Last pivot rejection off the bounce we had. If we gap over this after earnings , long's are favored on a hold , as we can squeeze back into 260's. If we can't get back over , short side trades are the play. We had a multiday base at this pivot before rejecting our way back down towards 227, sellers are here , lets see if they stand their ground.
249.42 - The most recent resistance zone , pretty close to round number at 250. The initial move leading into last week's consolidation was up , so if the bull flag pattern remains in tact breaking over 250 should provide a nice breakout trade back towards mid 250's. Holding over this zone would help the breakout case , as we can see buyers coming in again looking to break thru 25. 243 - Most recent support , we held a base here for 4 trading day last week , over this zone , favorite longs. Back unde and the bull flag pattern breaks as we can go try for a gap fill at 241.
233.92- If we do see a downside dip next week , 234 is pivotal as well , back under here and doors open for short side trades favoring a move back under 230. This zone has acted as an intraday pivot , and should likely act as it again in the case if we see a pullback.
227.79 - If we see any gap down , this will be the key for that "Higher daily hold" , this gives in trend flips back to downside and things can get goin back towards the 220's to test those lows from September.
4. PAYPAL ($PYPL)
$PYPL - DAILY UNTIL 12/10
Paypal held up pretty sideways with the market pullback a few weeks ago. It looks lik buyers have found 180 to be important. We saw a $15 bounce back towards the upside off that 180 zone , followed by a mid week rejection. The important thing to watch early next week will be , if PYL can put in a higher low and continue back to the upside , or will it fail and keep falling to the downside. Ideally any hold over 180 ona. pullback would be best , but it is more prefered if we can hold higher above say the 184 gap.
KEY LEVELS:
202.03 - Breakdown candle from last month. We had a multiday hold over 202-203 before breaking , now this level will be crucial as well on the upside. If 203 is recaptured Bulls will start to take control on the chart again. While if we spike into this zone , and can't get over , it can provide a short trade as well. If buyers have truly started to step in should see this zone be visited within the next 1-2 weeks.
193.62 - The breakdown candle from late November , have only cleared this level once , just this past week , and it was seen by an almost immediate reversal to the downside. If we see a bounce and we recapture this zone , Bulls will start to take control on the daily , and we can see a nice rally towards 200. Under this level , shorts ae favored again.
187.73 - Had a gap over this sell zone, and just ran a re-test of this zone to end last week. Buyers did hold over 187 , and continuing to hold would be a good sign for buyer momentum. We could come slightly lower to fill that gap at 185 , but holding much lower than say 184 would not be good for the bulls.
179.32 - The bottom of our last bounce , Should act as support , if we break under , we can see another $5-$10 move to the downside , which has been pretty common with Paypal , when the bounces fail to hold. Under this zone provides a great zone , though I would like to see a higher hold to flip back to the upside.
5. SNOWFLAKE ($SNOW)
$SNOW - DAILY UNTIL 12/10
We saw some pretty large red candles in the last week weeks after rejecting 407. Earnings pretty much came out and helped get buyers flooding back in , but can they continue to hold and break back towards the all time highs (420). We have retested 378 a few times since the bounce , with the first one rejecting on 11/29 , and now the most reject visit last week , looks to be forming a consolidation , perhaps in a attempt to accumulate buyers for an upside breakout , lets see if they get it.
KEY LEVELS:
393.4 - 392 - 393 was a key pivot from over a year ago, and an gap from 11/15 , woce we gave up the level we saw some very big sell pressure , dropping $40 + in a day. Sellers are likely to be present here again , at least on the first visit , so it should provide both an upside target + a potential short trade. Anything over say 395 , and we would likely be gunning for the 52 week high over 407 and then the ATH's into 429.
377.39 - Most recent resistance zone , we had a re-test late November which rejected , but with the recent consolidation , it looks like SNOW buyers may be looking for an upside breakout. Nevertheless it is a key level , and if we are under , we can look for shorts , while a break over , would help get us an upside breakout trade and get us going back towards mid 390's.
358.19 - Was a pivot bounce , and for the most part this was the higher zone that we held last week . Getting back under 358 could be the first sign that sellers are taking over again , and it can also be an initial downside target if you look to short 377.
330.22 - Any dip into this zone would be a buy for the time being ,as long as we trade over 330 i do favor long side dip buys. Getting back under would likely flip trend , on a longer perspective to the short side , and wwe could get going back towards 300.
EXTRAS:
TTD - Back from last week , TTD found a nice consolidation last week over 94. If that continues to hold , I like long side trades into 97 and 100. While if it give sin , short side trade are open down into the gap and support between 88-89.
$TWLO - Would like to see if TWLO can get a higher hold off the most recent bounce . We saw a nice rally last week before rejecting around 290. If 260 can hold again on dips would like to take this back to the longside.
$COST AND AVGO - Both made new highs , would be looking for dip buy opportunities
$AVGO - 618 support , back under we could try for a gap fill into 590, but ideally just need more price action to occur up here to see where the key levels are. A few from 12/10 include 618 , 633ish and 640
$COST - need a bit more time for price action to develop as well , but ideally like longs if 555 is held or a dip hold around 545.
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That's it for this week's list, if you have any questions don't hesitate to contact us or drop them below. These are just a few stocks im keeping my eye on this week, and as always, do your own due diligence and realize that their will always be risks associated with trading !
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