Hello everyone and welcome to another weekly breakdown by True Trade.
Market Volatility continues , we saw quite a few big swings last week , and as mentioned in the last few posts , I don't expect this volatility to die down anytime soon. Hopefully some of the watchlist names can help you make better sense of what to expect in the week to come.
As I mentioned last week , don't let this volatility make you break you good habits , stay disciplined, be patient , there are alot of trading opportunities available , if you miss one , their is neo need to chase , just wait for the next one.
(ALL TIME IS BASED ON MST)
(for all trades below I mention level hold, stop loss, etc, I'm using daily or hourly closes for stop losses or holds, you can trade the levels on an intraday basis !).
1. S&P 500 ($SPY)
$SPY - DAILY UNTIL 2/11
The market moved quite. bit last week , and as usual , SPY did not disappoint. The Initial half ontt the week showed some consolidation , while the latter part included a rally into a sell off. 458 double topped , and we broke back under the pivotal 444 support , putting the ball back in the bear's favor. This upcoming week will be an interesting one , especially the first 1-2 dys , lets see if keep on dropping , or look to recapture 444.
452.95 - If we do see some upside in the week to come , 453 would be a good first target over 451 , and over that , can look for a forceful move back towards 455 , 458.
451 - This was pretty important this past week as well , and has bee. important location in the past (check the early December bounce). Early in the week , we struggled to hold over 4511 , but mid week , once we got the hold , se. gp and go of $7+ to the upside. Then we held the zone for an initial bounce on 2/10 , before breaking and staying under mid way thru 2/10 to end the week. Under 451 let sellers pile in , and it helped push us lower this past week.
444 - Pivotal location , 3 weeks go when we had our large range consolidation between 420-440 , 444 was the key reaction spot, nd once we cleared it on 1/31 , we took of soering back to the upside. This will be my early week key level pivot , looking to get long back over , while being cautious underneath.
439.84 - Important logical number , plus an important pivot from late January. lot of price action was done round 440 , meaning a lot of traders were involved at this zone acted as support to close last week. If buyer can hold it again , could look to test and recapture 444 , back under this and it would get very ugly , probably held back towards 438 , 435-436 and then 430.
429 - A lot of trading was done at this zone as well in late Jan , if that 440 zone doesn't hold , It would be possible to come and retest this area , which , at least on the initial touch , would offer. buying opportunity. We could potentially bounce earlier the 435-436 range , but it is much more likely to see. strong bounce in this 429-426 area. Breaking under this would likely led to a break into 420 again if not lower.
2. NVIDIA ($NVDA)
$NVDA - DAILY UNTIL 2/11
WIth earnings coming up late next week , NVDA will definitely be name to watch. It's already been moving pretty nicely of late , but that added ER news could added some sweet additional volume. Last week ended with a pretty strong sell candle , but then again , most of the market did. We find ourselves back at 40 support , but s of now , there is o sign this zone will even hold.
260.79 - The first breakdown candle the broke us under that 256 support level. Ran. retest of the zone this past week , we were able to spike over it initially , but quickly gave it up , and started going back to the downside. ANy spike back into this zone during earnings , can provide a great short trade opportunity with stop loss right over. If we do start to hold , can look for a move back towards 269.
256.22 - Has been a very key pivot for the past few months , the low from the 1/10 bounce included. On the rally last week , we got over 256 , held if for 2 days , but once it gae in , we saw a pretty forecul drop back to the downside. Would place more importance on this zone as the pivot if we do find ourselves moving up, short under, long over.
235.68 - A breakdown candle back from late Jan. We have held this zone a few times on a retest , at times even holding higher over 240. WOuld look to be a buyer if this zone holds , but it iot gives in , short trades down towards 232 and 223 look like a great option.
212.88 - THis is where the big buyers have been coming in , of course if we do see a down break we could see some buying early on around 223 or even the 228 open gap , but the big zone is down at 213 , that would provide a pretty nice trade opportunity if we do get there, atlest on the initial touch if it holds.
$RBLX - DAILY UNTIL 2/11
RBLX has taken quite a turn , down over 50% from the all time highs , and just coming off an all time low from 2 weeks go. Earnings are coming out this upcoming week , lets see they can keep it enough juice to flip the trend , or if there will be more downside to come. This is one of the lower volume names on the list , but should see some expanded volume with ER report.
74.19 - Breakdown candle , initially there was a bit of buying occurring at 75 , but we gapped down , and started to fall on the break. Would definitely look for a short opportunity on a failure to hold this zone up here.
70.74 - Was a iopen gap until filled last week , was a pretty respected over/under pivot on the day (see on 5 min) , over buyers held , while under , sellers looked to take control, will continue to utilize this as an intraday pivot for the following week.
66.16 - Another area with a bit of price action , alot of back and forth around this zone . Getting back under 66 can lead to a quick move into 64 , while holding over can help to send a rally back towards 70.
60.66 - Held this zone now for about 2 weeks now. Was a breakdown candle from 1/27 , but ever since we recaptured it , buyers have found. wa way to hold over it. Breaking unde this would be bad news for the bulls , while holding would mean there is at least some slight life in the bull camp. Will definitely be one of the more important levels this week.
57.06 - So this was our lowest daily close , just prior to making the all time low. IDeally would look to see some initial buying around 57 or at the open gap of 58 , but anything under that , and it's very possible that we make a new all time low.
4. ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES ($AMD)
$AMD - DAILY UNTIL 2/11
SImilar to NVDA , we saw a pretty ugly dy to close the week, in this case we even broke under the support from early in the week at 118. We ended up filling the gap at 117 and then continued even much lower. 112 could see some buying , but if not , would look to see how 108 acts. That break under 118 was not ideal , and it can provide. short trade on bounces back into it as well.
126 - Former breakdown candle , with a lot of price action done around in this past week (easy to see on a 5 min chart). Would be a zone to watch on the upside if we do happen to see a rally.
118.8 - Had this zone as multi-day support , we sw a abit of buying here on Friday , but didn't take long before the level gave in and broke. If we see. bounce early in the week , would be watching for possible short trades from 118.8-120. Getting back over and holding over , would open the possibility of rallying back towards 122, 125-126.
116.53 - Was an open gap that got filled on the most recent down move. Can be utilized as an early week pivot , short under targeting towards 112 , while long over targeting towards 118.8.
112 - breakdown cadle , also the sport we cleared to confirm the short term reversal. We had a lot of sell pressure at 112 to initalstart off , but once we got back over it , we were able to hold and take off to the upside.
107.91 - The breakup candle that gave us the reversal back over 112. WOuld look to be a buyer down here on the initial retest. Getting under this would open the gate for a move towards 105 and 100 again.
5. ENPHASE ($ENPH)
$ENPH - DAILY UNTIL 2/11
ENPH reported earnings last week , and although the initial reaction was good , we ended the week with some large selling momentum. Ideally I would be looking to capitalize on a bounce back to the upside if the market can hold , but if not , we do still have some room left to the downside towards the 130's.
171.39 and 174.56 - The 171 level was a prior support before we broke down , and the 174 level was the start of that breakdown candle. We tested these zones on the gap up last week , but sellers came in pretty strong, we saw some buying at them , but not enough to sustain the trend. Bck over 156 cn open the gates for a rally back into the 170 zone. Before this we do always want to be aware of 165 , not. whole lot of action of late , but it is round where we had our midday rejection on on 2/9 and 2/10.
155.97 - As we see on the left side of the chart , we had a little bear flag forming around this zone , we broke down , held sideways for a bit and continued lower under 156. We had gapped over it with the ER report last week , held it initially , but gave it right back. Once we gave it up , sellers took full control and we saw a $10+ drop the very same day. This will act as an important pivot on the upside if we see a bounce , staying under can help shorts , while getting back over will be favorable for longs.
144.9 - Was a unfilled gap from earnings , but we ended up filling it on the Friday drop. If we hold this early in the week , caan look for a bounce trade , while breaking under would help ignite. move down towards 138 nd then 132.
132 - Has see some continued buying here the last few weeks , would look for initial buyers to step in on a visit , but if it does give in , short trade towards 128 and 125 will be opened. This was also a former breakdown candle that we initially held under. Once we did recapture it buyers have been able to hold.
$SHOP - Shopify is reporting earnings this week , on the upside , sellers are positioned slightly above 1000 , around 1004 , where as buyers in the current rage can be seen at around 810. A breakdown can ignite a move to 780 and then possibly even 705. A break on the upside could push us towards 1102 and 1190. If we stay within the range , intraday pivots can be 815, 859 , 936 and 1000.
$ROKU - Roku also hs earnings this week , a few zones to b ware of here would be 178.56 is a breakdown candle with sellers at it , saw it even with last week's rejection. Getting over this opens the gates for 189 , while under keeps it week. On the downside we have the bottom eend of the range holding up around 145, we have spiked under it a few times , but that's where most of the buying has been occuring.
That's it for this week's list, if you have any questions don't hesitate to contact us or drop them below. These are just a few stocks im keeping my eye on this week, and as always, do your own due diligence and realize that their will always be risks associated with trading !
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