Updated: Feb 23, 2021
Good evening everyone , welcome to another week of some hot picks and trade ideas. To start we will go over market conditions, some key takeaways from this past week's price action and what to look out for on the indices for potential downside continuation or reversal signals.
First up we have /ES or the futures for the S&P 500.
/ES - DAILY UNTIL 2/21 7PM MST
As seen in the chart above after making a new high on 2/16 to start the week , we kind of just fizzled out heading lower and closing the week towards the lows. This was one of the few time in our recent market up move that once we headed down we began to consolidate lower and lower, perhaps building up momentum to break lower. Now again , from an overall sentiment , yes the market is still bullish , but as usual you always want to start looking for signs of potential trend reversals, and they are slowly starting to form again. If you recall just a few weeks ago from 1/27 - 1/29 we had signs of weakness once again which resulted in a pullback from 3846 to 3660, This time around you would want to look for a break and hold under 3884 for some continued downside, while using pside areas around 3910 as the most recent resistance. Now say we hold 3885 and push back up, the area of supply right now is sitting off 3935. Now if we get the break, i'll be keeping my eyes on 3846 and 3815 ranges for the next bounce. Similarly on $SPY the downside support levels would translate to 387.71 , 385.41 , 384.3 and around 380.
SPY - DAILY UNTIL 2/19
Similar tech and /NQ are in a similar position, if not weaker, so here are some key areas to watch for them.
Getting under 13552 would be the best first step , and then it would be very likely to visit 13367 range. Other than that some key levels are above , so keep your eye out for those breaks and continuations 👀
Now to get to the fun stuff with some top picks for the week , favoring market downside, 😯. Don't worry I'll have both supports and resistances so you can react to whichever way the market decides to go...
(for all trades below I mention level hold, stop loss, etc, I'm using daily or hourly closes for stop losses or holds)
1. TESLA ($TSLA)
Tesla has been leading to the downside over the past few weeks , despite the market heading up, tesla has had a nice selloff. Because of that i do like continued downside as it has been relatively weak compared to the market.
$TSLA - DAILY UNTIL 2/19
As it currently stands , Tesla broke its most recent support from 815 on 2/10,then had a retrace reject continuation to its 758 gap support. The key inflection atm is 777, if Tesla can get back under and get a daily close under that level , the flood gates can open down until 720.
Key Levels to watch: Break and hold under 777 would start it's next leg down and then 720 and 695 as the presumed big buy supports. If we get a bounce as long as 794 doesn't clear thats an area for a great short, at max 815. If 815 breaks and holds then those could be sign' of a reversal.
2. APPLE ($AAPL)
Similar to Tesla Apple has had a nice steady down trend the past few weeks, and it another one looking to head lower if market downside begins.
$AAPL - DAILY UNTIL 2/19
We got a bounce off support from 2/18 and now it looks to be rejecting the 131 zone once again. Coming into next week we can have a range from 131 - 127 as those will be the 2 most important areas. If 127 is broken continued downside can led to 121. Meanwhile if we get back over 131 we can see mid 133's.
Key levels to watch: In this case 131 for resistance with 127 ad support.
3. PELOTON ($PTON)
$PTON - DAILY UNTIL 2/19
We had a nice breakdown on 2/17 , and have yet to revisit that breakdown area. SO for $PTON , the best short would be a retest off 144. The most recent support is 134 , and if we break their downside can resume until 126-127. I do favor continued downside, and if we don;'t get a fll retrace to 144 for a short, look to short weakness around 139-140 or a break under 134.
Key levels to watch: 134 is the support while staying under 144 is best for continued downside.
4. THE TRADE DESK ($TTD)
Once again trade desk finds itself on the list. In classic fashion $TTD did its breakout action at the end of the week so there is still potential for more !
The 870 finally broke after earnings , and we shot right up to 923. Now this upcoming week we can look for retrces and holds at either 901 or 872 to go long, or look to short 923. This is one of the stronger setups on the list , so i would prefer to go long on dips or the break of 923.
Key levels to watch: 923 as the resistance with 901 and 872 as support.
These are some picks i have for the upcoming week. Keep in mind that you can also take trades on $QQQ, $SPY, $IWM and other indices if we have a market pullback. Be smart be diligent and realize that there is always risks with trading.
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Hope you all have a wonderful rest of your weekend, and a great upcoming week :)
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