Market Watchlist 3/21 - 3/25
Hello everyone and welcome to another weekly watchlist by Ture Trade !
Last week was a pretty volatile one , bit more than usual. We re-tested some key demand zones early last week , and did not look back closing the weeks on 5-10% + indice rallies with tech leading the way. Of course the FOMC day added some fuel to the fire , starting with a drop and quick reversal to launch us back into close. Sell zones on the upside seemed to be getting cut like a hot knife thru butter.
But the question on everyone mind now is , "was the the market bottom" ? Personally , I don't believe that to be the bottom yet , it definitely is a short term bottom , but I am not in the camp of expecting new all time highs of that low. Does that mean we won't get them , no , it just means I don't expect to get them with the current price action. We saw 4 consecutive green days across the market , can we keep going , yes , but i'm looking for a pullback sometime early next week to setup another "base" if we are to really continue running up any higher. I will still be looking to play upside setups if they present themselves next week , as long as the trend hold and key levels hold , but will also be cautious of a pullback scenario. In short , we are in the middle of a short squeeze , and their hasn't been any sign of sellers stepping up at the moment , so until they do present themselves , we can look to ride the way on to the upside. If your bearish , just keep in mind , that these short squeezes can go on for longer than most people expect , and if your going to continue trying shorts , either keep tight stops , or wait for some confirmation of sellers starting to pile in again.
** As I mentioned in the last few week , don't let this volatility make you break you good habits , stay disciplined, be patient , there are alot of trading opportunities available , if you miss one , there is no need to chase , just wait for the next one. **
(ALL TIME IS BASED ON PST)
(for all trades below I mention level hold, stop loss, etc, I'm using daily or hourly closes for stop losses or holds, you can trade the levels on an intraday basis !).
Levels are meant to be used as trade levels , not necessarily buy and hold levels !
VIDEO VERSION OF WATCHLIST WILL BE POSTED NO LATER THAN 6 PM PST :
1. S&P 500 ($SPY)
$SPY - DAILY UNTIL 3/18
As usual , let's start the list off with SPY. We held the big 415 buy zone mentioned in last weeks list (although we hit it overnight between 3/14 - 3/15) . Off it we did end up seeing a pretty heft rally , about 7% + from 415. Will this rally sustain , or is it a bull trap in the making. As of now , bulls do have control , so until their is a sign of sellers stepping in we could look for continued buy opportunities , or short trades with tight stops.
449.41 - There is another breakdown candle here as well from mid FEB. We have yet to test this zone since breaking down from it. I would definitely be interested in short attempts around 450 , with stop just above it. Getting over this could help ignite a squeeze back towards the open gap at 458.
446.4 - This was the last breakdown area we had , we were pretty close to hitting it after hours on friday , getting to the high 445's. keep an eye here early next week , if we are struggling to stay over mid 446, could be an initial size that a reversal can be in store.
44.47 - 441 - Initially i was expecting a rejection here last Friday , but as we can see , the level gave in , and he rally continued. Once this level broke , it gave the sign for a squeeze into close. So on the flip side , if we see selling early next week , we would need to give up 440-441 if we are to truly fail and continue back to the downsie. If 441 holds on pullbacks , its an opportunistic lon opportunity.
437.75 - Another key level for next week. Important zone from back in late FEB , and then was respected intraday on both 3/17 and 3/18. If we give up 441 , this would be where I eye for the next downside target, 438. Under this level , we can look for mid 435 and then mid 433.
2. ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES ($AMD )
$AMD - DAILY UNTIL 3/18
Saw a very nice bounce on AMD with the rest of the market , looks to have had a triple bottom pattern off the 100-101 zone. We broke back over 110 and have been able to hold it the later part of last week , if we can continue to hold would look to favor continued moves to the upside. If it gives in , would look for a rotation back to the downside.
118.2 - Over the 115 area , we have a breakdown candle at 118 , and that's where I would be looking to target next. Over 118 , could keep an eye out for 120 and 122.
115.37 - Open gap from last Wednesday. Tried to hit this to close out last week , but was unable to clear the 115 area to get up there. Would keep an eye out for potential shorts in the 115 area until it breaks , could also look to take a breakout trade on the upside if 115 begins to hold.
109.4 - Held the latter part of last week , held the zone for a few days while looking to break upwards. Would favor being a buyer over this zone , mid 109-110. If this breaks , then I would look to favor downside trades.
107 ISH - Under 110 area , we have a few days of back and forth going from 107 - mid 107. that would be annital downside target if 110 support. gives in. Under that we could look for a continued move down into mid 104 - 105.
101.55 - Don't think we test this zone next week , but on any chance we do come back to this area , I would look to be a buyer until this zone breaks.
3. NVIDIA ($NVDA)
$NVDA - DAILY UNTIL 3/18
NVDA had a pretty extended rally off last weeks bounce , giving us a 25% + bounce off last weeks low to highs. Far beyond the rallies we saw across the rest of the market. If we do see a selloff early next week , would put NVDA in the camp to get an extended pullback back to the downside. But if buy pressure does continue across the market , treat any pullback into that 245 area as a buying opportunity.
269.42 - This was an open gap from our breakdown level in mid January. The gap has been filled on the early FEB bounce , and it does have sellers coming into it. o would look to utilize this as a possible sell zone. Right above this we have a weekly pivot at 272.5 which would be the next upside target if the 270 level gives in. But if sellers can indeed step in off this area , would look for a rotation back to the downside.
265.11 - Open gap that just got filled on our most recent rally. Want to keep a eye on the zone, as off it we did see a gap down and continuation down into 200. If buyers can hold over 265 , can look for a move towards 270, If sellers decide to come in , we can initially look for a move back down into 260 , 256 ( both were intraday levels from 3/18) .
256.3 - A prior breakdown candle , turned into support on our bounce on 3/18 (seen better on smaller time frame). On a pullback , could look at this as a potential buy zone , but if the level gives in , we would no longer have a higher hold , and we could eye continued short size trades into the 244-247 location.
243.85 - 244 was an important pivot , especially mid last week. On our initial rally on NVDA we saw rejection happen once price held under 244 (3/16), and then after that we continued to respect 244 on an intraday basis. On any pull back next week , would keep an eye out for 244. If we can hold , great for longs , and it would be a breakout retest long trade , while if we break back under , look out below for 240-241 and then mid 230's.
$ADBE - DAILY UNTIL 3/18
Adobe has earning coming up next week , and it usually provided decent ER moves , so I would like to keep an eye out on it. We closed last week filling an open gap from 3/9 , and off that we are coming back into an important breakdown zone from 458-460. If we can get back over the top range , we could see a continued explosion into 475+ , while if we fail , a rotation back down into mid 440 isn't out of question.
477.77 - Last pivot area where we saw the most recent rejection into lows. Any move back into that 477-479 area can open up the gate for short trades. Any hold over say 480 can lead to a continued move up into 482-483 initially , and then 490.
460 ish - From around 458-460 (2/24 - 3/4) we had a few days of demand being built here. Then when we broke down on 3/4 , we didn't look back. I would expect another bull/bear battle at this location. If we can hold over , we could see continued upside into 465-466 , while if we fail , a move back into 445 would be likely.
444.68 - Was a key pivot zone last week , acted as resistance on 3/17 , and then when we broke over on 3/18 , it held as support. Can look for buying opportunities as long as we can hold here. If it give in , can look for a move down into 437-438 and then 425.
431.5 - Under the 437 support zone we have 431.5 which was our breakup candle on 3/16.
5. NIKE ($NKE)
$NKE - DAILY UNTIL 3/18
Nike on watch with earnings coming up this week. Similar to the rest of the market we did see a nice rally off the lows, now the main question is will it sustain and continue after ER , or will ER send it crashing back down. We closed last week right back into an important breakdown location , will be interesting to see if we see an early rejection next week , or if we can hold over it and keep on running.
137.06 - Had a few days rejecting this zone , a bit of supply build up. Would look for potential shorts on quick moves back into 137. If 137 does break , can look for breakout trades into mid 138 and 140.
131 - Breakdown candle that broke multi-day support from mid FEB , just tested this zone to end last week, can look for potential short trades off this location. Back over this zone can target the gap at mid 132 and then the 134 gap . If it fails at 131 , can look for a rotation back towards 129 (midday support 3/18) and then mid 127.
127.4 - Was a breakout zone to close last week , and was a prior reitance zone. On a move back down would look to target this for a take profit zone. Back under this can even look for 126 and 123.
122.63 - The reversal zone this past week. Would look here for a potential buying opportunity on dips this upcoming week. If this level does give in , we are likely to break back into the 118 lows.
EXTRAS: $TLSA - TSLA saw a superb rally , almost 20% from last weeks low to high. We broke over the 886 supply zone , if we can continue to hold it would look for longs into 913 , 926 and then if we really go , 950 , where we likely see some big sellers come in again. If we give in 886 , would watch 860-865 initially on the downside.
That's it for this week's list, if you have any questions don't hesitate to contact us or drop them below. These are just a few stocks im keeping my eye on this week, and as always, do your own due diligence and realize that their will always be risks associated with trading !
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