Welcome to another weekly watchlist by True Trade !
This past week , we started to see a shift in market trend. With tech leading , the short term trend began to shift back to the downside. There can definitely be continued follow through back down in the coming week , so keep an eye on those $SPY levels to see if that will indeed be the case.
Last week we relcared 20, and nearly hit 30 on Vix , so the volatility is definitely back , so a plethora of trading opportunities should present themselves, as always , be patient for the right one's for your trading style, and now lets begin.
(ALL TIME IS BASED ON PST)
(for all trades below I mention level hold, stop loss, etc, I'm using daily or hourly closes for stop losses or holds, you can trade the levels on an intraday basis !)
1. TARGET ($TGT)
$TGT - DAILY UNTIL 5/14
The first two on the list aren't generally one's i trade, but with earnings coming up, both should provide some good trading liquidity. Target has been on an absolute tear recently, and is still just hovering under its all time highs. Sellers had a nice down move under 212, but buyers came back in off 202, which should hold steady for at least an intraday buy opportunity.
212.41: The most recent sell area, after making new highs, we sold off , gapped down and had a push from sellers under that 212.5. The short term trend is still up ,but. if. sellers continue to hold under 212.5, start looking for short side trades , although i would prefer long trades on holds over , or dips to 202
202: Multi Day, almost 3 week base off 202, buyers held this level for sideways consolidation, and this is where the have control , we get a break under , short term trend can shift back to the downside. Until then , buy 202.
198.08: If we see a gap down post earnings , you can look to be short under 202 , or look to be a buyer off 198 or 194.29 , the latter being a better buy opportunity as it was a breakup candle over the former all time highs, while the 198 was a sideways base off those former all time highs.
2. LOWES ($LOW)
$LOW - DAILY UNTIL 5/14
Lowes also has earnings in the upcoming week, and it has been another one on a tear . Most recent buyers come in off 195 while sellers showed some force around mid 208. The trend is still strong, and up for this one, so I would prefer long side trades on dips, and preferably long if 195 continues to hold.
208.25: not totally definitive but 208-210 is where sellers have pushed under, we haven't revisited 208 since the sell , so look for signs of weakness there to be a seller, but treat with caution due to daily uptrend, can utilize more as an upside profit target.
195.4: Buyers have held for the month, and as long as we hold here, look to be a continued buyer
185.8: If we gap down after earnings, the next strong buy area would e the breakup area around 185, maybe we hold higher around 192.67 or 186.8 , but I do really like the 185 for best r/r.
3. SQUARE ($SQ)
$SQ - DAILY UNTIL 5/14
One of my favorites, Square is back on the list. This last week we had a pretty strong push down
(which we were able to catch ;) ) , and this increased volatility, has made it easy to trade once again. A weaker trend than the general market , ever since failing to make a new ATH on the bounce , and then continuing down after earnings. we could see an early week bounce, especially since we cam off the 192 big buyer area, but the short trend trend is defiantly down, and especially weak if we can hold back under 202.
243.11: This was the last breakdown area, it's possible we come retest here before heading back down , but I don't think that would be as likely, and if we visit here, we probably reject, holder higher and build momentum to break back over
220.65: The most recent sell area , gapped down off here, could do a gap fill , but ideally for continued weakness i would like to see SQ holding under 214-215 range on a daily basis.
201.87: The intraday over under level , had a lot of buyers here last time around , kind of just flushed it on 5/13 , but it may be possible to hold again after the 5/14 bounce back , so look out for that. Under here you can target 195.9 and then 192. 191.66: big buyer area , can continue to look for at least intraday buy opportunities here
$TSLA - DAILY UNTIL 5/14
If you've been keeping up with the last few blog posts, I've been adamant on $TSLA shorts for the last week weeks, basically ever since 777 and then the earnings gap down. It has been one of the stocks leading to the downside , even before the market began to turn, so if we continue to head lower, I like continued downside for this. A weak stock, in a waker QQQ market.
641.87: Brokedown on 5/10 and hasn't been revisited, would look for sellers again around 542 or 660 sot see if continued weakness is till present.
600.55: we had multiple buy attempt off 600 before break under on 5/12 , use this as a intraday over under zone , longs can look for control over while continued short side is strong holding under 600-602.
563: Was an unfilled gap , now filled and holding , can also utilize this as an intraday over under , where you look to be a buyer with a tight stop over, and look for continued downside on break under towards 540.
540.5: still a solid buy zone , at least look for intraday long trades off this area.
5. S&P 500 ($SPY, /ES)
Due to some delay i wasn't able to post a market outlook post this week , but i will have some crucial spy level to play off. The short term trend has began to shift down , so I do favor continued downside plays for this, plus intraday bounce plays off key levels.
$SPY and /ES - Daily until 5/7
The short term trend began to shift to the downside last week , but is there more to come? Noot as sure about that yet , but it is definitely possible with a few key zones in mind on /ES , including 4172, 4150-4155.
4172-4178 (approx 416.26) :- Key daily level mentioned last few weeks, wanting to stay short under, while long over. We got a fakeout breakdown last week , but this week we followed with continuation. We closed the week back over with a bounce to end the week , but are currently back under it (/ES FUTURES 10 PM). As long as we can remain under those 5/14 high's i will look for some short side trades initially targeting 4155 area, looking for a break under to continue to the downside.
4150-4155 ( approx 415.6 on SPY): Saw some base resistance here on the downside from 5/11 - 5/13 and then saw buyers hold over on 5/14, so this will be the crucial pivot , if buyers can continue to hold , we can range between that 4155-4175 before looking to break back up, while if sellers break us back under , staying short back towards 4114 would be best.
4114 (Approx 410.85): This has been discussed as the big bbuy zone for almost a month now, we got a break and continuation under to start the week and we visited that lower 405.5 level , if buyers continue to hold here again look for long side trades once again , but if we break that 4155 and flush 4114 , more likely than not we will make a lower low than that 405 put in last week.
- If we continue to downside more levels will remain in play , and they will be posted thru IG stories as viable -
A FEW EXTRAS: $BIDU: 191 is a good over under level , with support on the downside being 178 and 170 , while the major resistance on the upside being back towards 204.7 (the former breakdown) and 214.
$AAPL: 128.4 ish was last consolidation breakdown area, look for sellers there, if we break eye 131.2 on upside for sellers, but if we hold under look to play down towards 125.6, 124.5 and 122.
Take a Peak at. https://www.truetradellc.com/post/market-watchlist-5-10-5-14 for some levels in play from last week , and scroll thru https://www.truetradellc.com/blog/categories/watchlists to see if ther's anything else you could utulize 👀
As always if you have any questions shoot us a message or drop them down below 👇
That's it for this week's list, if you have any questions don't hesitate to contact us or drop them below. These are just a few stocks im keeping my eye on this week, and as always, do your own due diligence and realize that their will always be risks associated with trading !
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