Market Watchlist 5/2 - 5/6

Hello everyone and welcome to another weekly watchlist from True Trade ! Last week went pretty well , as we had a plethora of big tech earnings being reported, with which we saw some increased volatility and larger market moves. Now with big tech earnings behind us , we have another Fed Reserve meeting coming up on May 4rth, something that many people will be looking forward to. With that event being pretty important , we can look to expect a large move but in terms of the direction , we won't know that until the move actually starts to happen. But let's get those key levels up , to help you locate zones to look out for. Something to keep in mind , tech is down over 20% from the highs early this year , aka tech is in a bear market , and on our last bounce we had we put in a lower high, so just be cautious for going to heavy on trades towards the long side unless you see enough buyer pressure.

(ALL TIME IS BASED ON PST)


(for all trades below I mention level hold, stop loss, etc, I'm using daily or hourly closes for stop losses or holds, you can trade the levels on an intraday basis!).


Levels are meant to be used as trade levels, not necessarily buy and hold levels !



1. SPY (S&P 500)

$SPY - DAILY UNTIL 4/29


We have a bit of a more zoomed out chart for SPY, as we closed last week at the lows. Things are not looking great as of now , but could that change with the upcoming fed meeting 🤔. Short term trend remains down , and we broke under that 415 support which held as a double bottom back in early March. Let's see where we go from here.

KEY LEVELS:

429.29 - 429-430 was our high last week and it was a previous support that roke 2 weeks ago and turned into resistance. Under 430 sellers have continued to hammer SPY pushing it lower and lower. Would definitely look to stay short at this zone until it breaks. If it breaks , we can see a quick move from 435-436.

422.29 - Over 417 , we had 422 which was an important hourly pivot this past trading week , and also an important intraday support/resistance (depending on which side of the level we were on). (Between 422 and 417 , 420 was another intraday pivot)

417.31 - This will likely act as an intraday pivot , was the close from 4/27 and the low from 4/28, if we get back over 415 , this would be the first area I would look to target for a base hit.

415 - This has been a very important weekly level , its from last Summer , and it did act as a buy zone back in March. We closed under this level to end the week , so would look for short trades if we chose to hold under.

411 - Under 415 we have 411 , which was another level visited on close last week. Along with that if we look at that green bullish candle from early March , that day also opened at 411 so we can look to use this as potential support for the upcoming week.

403.46 - This is a weekly level back from April 2021, this area is likely to see the next wave of big buyers , at least on an initial test , but if Fed goes haywire , we can look to just use this as a downside target level. Between 411 and 404 , we can use mid 405 as a target level as well. Under 403 the next area could be the logical 400 and 394-395 (weekly breakout zones from march 2021).


2. $AMD (ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES)

$AMD - DAILY UNTIL 4/29


We are back with AMD , it's been a while , but with earnings coming up , this would provide a good opportunity for some high probability trades. Similar to the rest of the market AMD has had a rough stretch over the last week months , this one one of the big tech names that started a faster move to the downside , breaking those March lows more than a few weeks ago. In terms of support , we are around the lows for the year ,ut lets see if earnings help flip that.

KEY LEVELS:

98.78 - Over 92 the next clear area of consolidation rejection was just under 99. 99-100 was a multi month support before our breakdown a few weeks ago , if we happen to spike back into this level after earnings , would look for short trade opportunities. Back over 99 can open the gate for the 101 gap and then 105.

92 - Under 92 puts the ball in the bears favor , we have held under 92 now for over a week , and have rejected it a few times on bounces to the upside. Until this level is recaptured , look to stay short on any pops.

87.5 ish - This one is an hourly zone , it respected for a few trading days last week , and a hold under or over can hold dictate which way we are likely to break ,whether it be hold over to break 92 , or hold under to flush under 85.

84.96 - This 85 level has held as support for this past trading week , but with how things have been looking for the market , it might be long until the zone gives in. Look to use 85 as a downside target level , along with a potential long trade level ( with a stop loss right under of course). If we can break and hold under 85 , the gates can open up for a big flush down towards 80.

80 - This area was consolidation support back in late May to early June. We have yet to come back to this zone since the bull rally , but we can visit this zone pretty quickly if price begins to hold under 85. This would be used as a potential buy zone until it is given up.



3. $SHOP (SHOPIFY)

$SHOP - DAILY UNTIL 4/29


Shopify hasn't been on a weekly watchlist for quite some time. THis name is generally a lower volume mover, so keep that in mind if your looking to play some low volume options. In terms of how the stock is looking , we are down over 75% from all time highs , and with earnings coming up , will we see more of the safe , or a relief rally of some sorts, let's find out. (Since their is lower volume on this one , there is a tendency to have more false breaks on either side, just something to keep in mind)

KEY LEVELS:

512.47 - We had a double bottom here back in early March before getting the break under in 2 weeks ago , since the breakdown we have yet to revisit it , but if we are to come back into it , would look for potential short trades on a hold under , or even a long trade if we can hold over. Over this level the breakdown candle at 535.01 (open from 4/21).

455.06 - Our most recent breakdown candle we even came into it and rejected it on Friday, Would like to utilize this as a short level until we can break over. Over 455 their is an hourly zone at 466 and then another breakdown candle at 480 , both which can provide another set of resistance.

416-423 - The 416 level was the daily close from 4/27 , it acted as support on 4/28 as well but that may not last long. The 423 level comes from the weekly breakup candle from last year (4/13/2021) , the low of the weekly candle was 417.8 , so I would like to keep that 416 as the crucial support for now ( as its closer to that 417 low). If 416 gives in the next 2 weekly zones would come in around 380 and 346.With this one , I would have to wait and watch price in real time to see where buyers are starting to step in again if we do break 416 , because we have not been down at those zones for over a year.



4. $AAPL (APPLE)

$AAPL - DAILY UNTIL 4/29


APPL was apart of our shortened watchlist from last week, ad from what I recall , the numbers worked our beautifully , especially off that ER spike to resistance. For this upcoming week would look for this to follow along with the rest of the market , preferably to the downside. Just by taking a quick glance on this daily chart we can see we still have a ways to go until those March lows, which would lead me to believe in a more forceful move to the downside (to catch up with the rest of the market) , as long as we see continued overall market sell pressure.

KEY LEVELS:

166.5 - This was our breakdown candle that gave up 164 pivot support. On the ER spike we had on 4/29 , we ended up rejecting right off this zone, confirming seller presence.

163.92 - This level was a pivot support that was given up just 2 weeks ago , and apart from the ER spike we saw , last week remained under , and rejected under this zone .

Mid 159-160 - This was an hourly zone last week , as we had oth hold under and holds over for 4/5 of the trading days last week. Can look to continue to utilize this as an intraday pivot.

155.09 - 155 was our pivot low last week , yes there is a level at 157 ( I would look to use that as a intraday pivot and target , it could hold as a support , but I prefer that 155 level). Would eye 55 for potential buy opportunities , ( keeping in mind the overall market conditions, if they remain weak , look at the level for a target on the short side). If this level is given in , a quick move towards 153 and mid 150 could be in store.



5. $MSFT (MICROSOFT)

$MSFT - DAILY UNTIL 4/29


MSFT is also back on the board from last week's shortened list. We saw a pretty hard rejection to end last week, even with a strong initial ER reaction. We closed the week back under that 279 support , and if we stay under it early next week , shorts will be looking great.

KEY LEVELS:

291.79 - This was a gap down, breakdown candle that gapped under support, and ever since that gap down , price has been struggling to get back over it. Any move back towards this level can be utilized as a great short opportunity.

289.24 - Right under that 292 level we have 290 , which has also offered its fair share of selling , this 2 levels can be used as sell zones , areas where we would like to be cautious of sellers. I would still put more weight on the above level.

282 ish - This was an hourly zone in the latter half of the week , can look to utilize it as an intraday pivot for the upcoming week.

278.91 - This was support , and a pivot bounce area back earlier this month. We broke under it to finish off last week , if we remain under it would look to favor continued downside trades.

275 ish - This was an hourly buildup zone from 4/26 , right before after hour earnings were reported. Look to use this as a downside target.

272.56 - This was the open of our bullish candle from 2/24 , we saw buy pressure here 2x last week (4/25, 4/26), but then did end up closing under it on 4/26). This would be another downside target level , but if we do see buyers holding , can look to use it for a bounce play to the upside.

266.19 - This is a weekly breakup candle , but we haven't tested it since our upside move , not sure I would want to be a buyer here yet , but say 264-266 is a zone I would keep an eye out for potential buying. Under that zone there is 261-262 . I will have a better idea of potential buy opportunities after price gets going down into these areas ( will keep you guys updated in real time - IG stories).





EXTRAS: $TSLA - TSLA had a very nice meltdown last week , something we were expecting once that 980 gave in, but now the question is , can we keep going ? We are still a ways off from those March lows, let's see if sellers can continue to stay in command. Some zone to watch would be as follows:

- Personally I would continue to favor short side trades on any retest of that 930 area .

 

That's it for this week's list, if you have any questions don't hesitate to contact us or drop them below. These are just a few stocks im keeping my eye on this week, and as always, do your own due diligence and realize that their will always be risks associated with trading !


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