Updated: May 31, 2021
Hello everyone and welcome to another weekly watchlist by true trade ! Last week , was a pretty solid one , Spy remained under that 4172 area on a daily basis and as a result we saw some nice pullbacks with increased volatility and trade opportunities, I expect it to continue for the week to follow !
Let's start by looking at the bigger picture , we had a pretty step pullback in the market over the last few week , with the S&P coming back around 4.5% from the ath's and with tech coming back just over 7.5% from the highs continuing to show the extended weakness . We did get another bounce to end last week , but will we hold going into next week 👀 With that being said , my full market outlook is still favoring R/R to the downside and wth the $SPY levels below you could look for some hints and signals so see if the short thesis will remain in tact. The overall trend is still up , the price action last 2 weeks could be seen as a normal market pullback , so just let the market tell you what's the best option .
(ALL TIME IS BASED ON PST)
(for all trades below I mention level hold, stop loss, etc, I'm using daily or hourly closes for stop losses or holds, you can trade the levels on an intraday basis !)
1. S&P 500 (SPY and /ES)
$SPY DAILY UNTIL 5/21
/ES Hourly until 5/23 9pm
As discussed early , i do still have my short thesis in play , staying short ideally under 4177 around 418 spy, while watching for a break back under 4140 (around 414).
4176.75 (417.94) - The /ES short zone + the gap area on SPY . We initially broke down from here on 5/10 - 5/11 , and just ran a test again of this breakdown on 5/21. If sellers want to start taking control here , we would ideally base under and head back lower breaking 4140 for confirmation back to the downside towards 4114. Gets over here , and back to new highs we head
4140 (414.1) - The next base area, as seen thru the hourly chart, this level was an intraday pivot, and consolidation zone , when we were under , sellers held under, when we were over, buyers held over, can continue to utilize is as an intraday level, short under, long over.
4114 (410.85) - The "big buy" zone from last week's post. We did indeed have a bull/bear battle here on 5/11 and 5/12 before breaking back under and flushing into 405. Then we held under for a bit before popping back up to close the week. Can see another battle here, soutilizee this as well for an over under intraday level. If we break lower , tune in to the IG stories to see next potential price targets.
2. SNOWFLAKE ($SNOW)
$SNOW - DAILY UNTIL 5/23
Snow has been on a pretty steady decline over the past few months, but some buyers brought it back to life just off the mid 180's. With earnings coming up this week , will it explode or reject and crash back to make new all time lows. This was a stock that ipo'd much higher than its expected valuation, will it come crashing back down 👀
KEY LEVELS: 240- This is probably the easiest, cleanest level to watch, we had an almost 2 month long consolidation under 240, and sellers build up supply in this zone. Under 240 shorts remain in control. There is just under a 5% short float on this , and if 240 does clear, it definitely has the potential to poop and continue towards 250.
210 - This was a breakdown pivot , which broke back over early last week on 5/17, can utilize this as an intraday over under level, looking to buy pullbacks here if buyers hold. ABove this 220 was also a pretty strong support for about a month, so utilize that as well for potential buys.
3. NVIDIA ($NVDA)
$NVDA - DAILY UNTIL 5/21
Generally a pretty good mover, NVDA has earnings coming up this week as well, and with that, the expected movements should increase. Nvda has held up pretty well despite the market pullback, and it's coming in hot back towards t's all time highs. Will it clear and continue , or fall off a cliff afteearningsgs, lets see.
621.46 - There are alot of sellers sitting around 626-630 , would be looking for shorts around here
593.47 - Was the prior support pre breakdown , gapped back over on 5/21, now utilize this as the over under , looking to ideally be long on holds over here.
572.25 - This area became resistance on the breakdown, and this can be the best for inty over under level, looking to be long on any pullback and holds here.
542- The initial breakup area was revisited last week and held, buyers are strong here, and this would be the best buy location for a longer hold, a break and hold under and we can fall towards 498... not all at once of course.
4. DOLLAR TREE ($DLTR)
$DLTR - DAILY UNTIL 5/21
Not one i usually play, but with earnings coming up some nice movements can be in store. We had a pretty long, month long consolidation on the upside over 113 before breaking under 2 weeks ago , and now it seems to have found some buyers off 108.
113.79 - No retest since breakdown , will utilize this as over under level, if sellers have control then they will hold under , meanwhile if buyers get us over we can go retest 116, 111.95 - The resistance from the breakdown , range right now between 112-108 , look for sellers to step here if DLTR wants to shift its longer term trend to the downside.
108.12 - 3 day hold along level , buyers have shown signs of stepping in , can look to be long with stop under 5/21's low.
5. TWILIO ($TWLO)
$TWLO - DAILY UNTIL 5/21
We had seen quite a drastic selloff on TWLO , falling close to 40% from it's highs just 3 months ago, but this last week , buyer have started to show some strength off that 280 area. A reversal can be in store for this one , and with it chances to go long on pullbacks!
321/327 - Both areas can offer some resistance , 321 had some sellers step in to end the week
305.5- Intermediate level , saw some resistance on the drop down, naturally should hold as support on a restest, so look to be a cautious buyer here.
278.52 - The big buy location , held for almost 2 weeks , forming a range 278-305 before ripping over to close the week.
Few others: $TTD - Looks set for a potential reversal as well , 473 big buy area, while holding 520 can build momentum back to the upside for 560 and potentially 586.
That's it for this week's list, if you have any questions don't hesitate to contact us or drop them below. These are just a few stocks im keeping my eye on this week, and as always, do your own due diligence and realize that their will always be risks associated with trading !
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