Stock Market Recap 8/18 + Watchlist Recap
Hello everyone , and welcome to another midweek recap by True Trade.
These last 2 days have been great , in terms of movement that is. Increased volatility has increased the potential of trading opportunities available , but if you weren't on the right side of these trades , you could definitely have gotten burned. Today we will get a nice market futures recap , along with the midweek watchlist update.
(ALL TIME IS BASED ON PST)
(for all trades below I mention level hold, stop loss, etc, I'm using daily or hourly closes for stop losses or holds, you can trade the levels on an intraday basis !)
Let's start with my favorite one , as usual, we have /ES or th futures for the S&P 500.
/ES DAILY UNTIL 8:OO PM ISH PST
As you can see , today's close was definitely not a good sign for bulls, at least in the short term. that 4415 area , correlated to around 441 on $SPY, was a key area of interest for buyers, we held yesterday on the bounce , but after failing to get back over 4456 on that bounce, sellers stepped in again , and the result this time, was a breakdown with some heavy followthru.
To start the week , we made new highs, but we made them in a very volatile fashion. We started the trading day on 8/16 on a gap down. To close out last week we held over 445 , and gaping back under to start the day was not looking god for the bulls. We got a rapid drop towards 442.68 support (posted on chart - grey zone) and off it we got , what now looks like a blow off top. Buyers quickly reversed us off the morning drop and we closed the day at new all time highs. We kept tat 445 level in mind , because the next day, we once again found ourselves under that level. To me this was a sign of a failed breakout. and with /ES holding the overnight session back under that 4456 (445) , short side trades looked favorable , and they indeed were 🚀 All the way down until the next big support at 441. We got the bounce , and found ourselves nearing 445 again toward, where we rejected again , and bears took control.
KEY LEVELS- /ES(SPY):
4414 ($441) - Key daily support , we just broke it today , if bears want to keep control, this is where i would look for short trade on a retest. If buyers recapture here , would probably look for a move back towards 4432(442.7ish).
4366.5 ($436) - The next buy downside area of interest comes around 436 for SPY. multi day consolidation at this zone before our up move. Would likely expect the bounce here. If we flush right thru this (not likely) , we can fall very quickly. If we open on a gap down tomorrow into the zone , would definitely prefer to be a buyer. Might hold higher off 4378 or mid 437 , but will have to wait and see what we look like tomorrow)
^ Those 2 zones area the most important ones I have for /ES for this week. ^
The whole market showed some downside toda , so the DOW and NQ look similar, Ill post the key levels up but won't dive to much into those. Would definitely be looking for a simultaneous bounce from the markets if we get one
/YM DAILY UNTIL 9PM ISH PST
/NQ DAILY UNTIL 9PM ISH PST
Both. seem close towards incoming support . Unlike the DOW and S&P , tech id not make a new high to start the week. Definitely something to note, and it was also leading to the downside with a much weaker bounce yesterday. Lets see if that lowe range sees some support , or we continue that down move.
Lastly I have VIX
$VIX - DAILY UNTIL 8/18
Vix managed to get back over 20 today , fear and volatility are definitely present in the market at this time. Keep an eye out on vix to see if we can close this week over 20 , it can definitely give us a sign of what's to come.
Overall, it looks like the short term trend in the market is trying to flip to the downside, but we are coming back to support. I wouldn't expect this downside support to break on that first attempt, specifically that 436 level for SPY, but we must be prepared for anything. Don't get fearful and panic , but create a trading plan that will fit your trading style and goals. If we close the week back over 441, then this sell could just be put up as a garden variety pullback,and we probably head back to the upside. Even if we just hold 436 , a key support will be held and we good see some more range before the next big move. As mentioned I'd be looking for longs around mid 437 or 426, with short potential around 441. If we just remain range bound then I wait. We don't want to force trades in this type of volatile environment.
Now to get to the watchlist update.
^^^ Check out the key levels if you haven't already in the post above ^^^
1. NVIDIA ($NVDA)
$NVDA HOURLY UNTIL 8/18
We had highlighted 198 and 193 as 2 key levels , along with 205. We started the week with a pretty quick flush rejecting off a mentined 202.7 zone. I didn't expect that quick a reaction , but looks like we did it. The clear trade we had on this one was the gap under 198 to start 8/17. Because we basically had a failed recapture. We broke under 198, and then closed the day back over it on 8/16. But gapping back under to start 8/17 , was a sign of a failed recapture, and gave us a short trade under the key zone.
⏩Earnings came out today and we see NVDA gapped back to the upside being at 194 ,preferably Id use 193 again as the pivot. We based around it today before that eod flush , but if we can hold over it tomorrow and get going back over 195 , maybe we get back towards 198. Upside trade would be preferable if the market also bounces off support. If we find ourselves gapping down in the morning I'd still be an interested buyer around 188.
$FB - HOURLY UNTIL 8/18
FB gave a nice long trade just over that 356 support to start the week (green zone). Then followed by a gap down back undr 365 on 8/16 , a short trade could be in the books as the breakout from the prior day looked to have failed. Apart from that w kind of just settled around 356 until today's eod break.
⏩ Downside looks more favorable for FB , with seller stepping in lower under 360. We have a bearish flag pattern in the making , and i assume we head back towards 348 , likely very soon. Would like short trades under 361.
Roblox was one I did not personally trade this week. We started the week with a break of our 81.6 support (top grey zone) and after that we found ourselves gapping down to a 74 support post earnings (this level was not given). After the bounce we recaptured 78 (which was a given level), and a sideways hold over this zone would've signaled a long trade , which turned into a nice up move recapturing 81.6 and 83.2
⏩ With such a positive reaction post ER on RBLX. I do prefer lon side trades for the remainder of the week over 81.6, and even better if 83 holds. I would target 85 , and maybe even 88. Back under 81.6 i'd target 80 and 78.
4. TWILIO ($TWLO)
$TWLO - HOURLY UNTIL 8/18
TWLO was a pretty simple one. We gapped back under the 363.8 key support, signaling a short side trade. We ot to the desired flush into 355 level aain , and this time , we grinded even lower. since that flush seems to have started to pick up a base around 340.
⏩I looked for long trades today on this one but they did not pan out. Looks like this consolidation is primed to head lower. I'd look to see how we react around 332 next.